Conker wrote:Has anybody ever done a study of the Racing Posts forecast SP and the eventual sp?
Conker, I think that you may be under the mistaken assumption that the Racing Post’s “Betting Forecast” prices are a prediction of what possible SPs will be. When in practice, they are what they say they are - betting forecasts of what the likely opening shape of a particular betting market will be before weight of money begins to shift the balance - otherwise known as "tissue prices".
Generally speaking, they have (with occasional exceptions) proved to be fairly reliable overnight guides as to the sort of opening prices that both orthodox and exchange layers are initially willing to put up throughout the early-to-mid morning. However, once reasonable amounts of money begin to circulate and the bookmaking laws governing supply and demand start to kick in, they can change shape very quickly.
As for the supposedly more accurate reliability of mature Betfair prices regarding a runner’s true chances in a race. Once one strips out the over-round percentage and the need to take likely each-way possibilities into pricing consideration then indeed, I would very much hope that such odds being offered were of a truer reflection. However, without the support of either an ante-post or on-course market I fear you won’t find many Betfair layers currently around who will stick their necks out to any meaningful amounts like some of their orthodox bookmaking brethren will occasionally do from time to time. I very much get the impression that out-and-out layers on Betfair are somewhat now in the minority. The laying predominance being apparently made up of a mix of hedgers and traders of one description or another.
You can call me greedy but if the simple truth were to be told, securing somewhere near the true odds about my winners is not good enough, I’m looking for better than that. So much so, gradually over the years what I’m finding is that Betfair is playing less and less of a role when it comes to seeking out such prices. That’s not to say that Betfair doesn’t have its uses but for me, not has much as it once did. For like I say, without the support of ante-post / on-course markets to stimulate liquidity, Betfair layers are seemingly not willing or prepared to compete with bookmakers other than in the close to the off ‘live’ market. Which is where, in practice, I don’t very often do my punting business being that the bulk of my bets have usually been struck long before then. For if I haven’t seen any subjective attractiveness in a price by then it’s probably because it isn’t there to begin with.